Thursday, February 21, 2008

10 - 0

With a population that is more than 91 percent white, Wisconsin isn't African American enough for Bill Clinton to hint that it didn't count. As one of the 20 most populous states in the union, it's not small enough for Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, to suggest it didn't rate. Because Wisconsin uses a primary, the Clinton campaign can't pretend it was noncompetitive because of a mysterious allergy to caucuses.

The bottom line is this… Hillary Clinton is just not the person the Democrats want as POTUS. She is experiencing the worst thing that can be said to a woman… “Sorry, we just aren’t that into you…”. She had no plan for after Super Tuesday and it has cost her big time. If the Democrats had used a winner take all policy like the Republicans, she would have been counted out a long time ago. Instead of telling people in her speeches that she is ready to be Commander in Chief or that she has already shown she can take the Republican’s best shot… she needs to be asking them for help just to keep her in the race. Maybe she has taken the Republican’s best shot, but that doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as hard as Obama’s best shot.

Obama has a 10-0 record since Super Tuesday. His win in Wisconsin was only by 17%, which was his smallest margin of victory during the streak. His average margin of victory during the streak was a whopping 33%. He appears to be unstopable now. He should end up winning Texas and Ohio by a large margin too.

McCain won an easy victory over Huckabee, moving him ever closer to clinching the party's nomination. In his speech afterward, McCain all but dismissed Clinton as a potential adversary, focusing his rhetorical fire on Obama as offering an "eloquent but empty call for change." What is wrong with McCain?? Can’t he see that Hillary has been saying that for the last month and she is 0-10? Why would he think this will work for him is beyond me. He needs to take Obama on in the issues if he expects to have any chance of winning. He will also need to win back the Independents that have been flocking to Obama. This is not going to be easy because Independents see him as part of the problem, not part of the solution. People like a “maverick” in the Senate, but they don’t like the idea of a “maverick” in the White House.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Obama vs McCain - The Battle Begins Now

The Potomac Primaries are over now and there were no real surprises. Both McCain and Obama had convincing wins and increased their lead in both delegates and the national polls. It looks more and more like these two will be the main candidates in November. Current polls show at this time that Obama would beat McCain by about 6-8%. IMO, it would be much higher.

In the Democratic race, Hillary seems to have decided to use the “Rudy Giuliani” plan and wait until Texas and Ohio to make her stand. She will have let “2 strikes” go by and is hoping to not swing and miss on March 4th. She will need to hit it out of the park is she has any hope of staying in the race, and Obama is not going to give her an easy one to hit. Obama has been gaining ground in many of Clinton’s core voters. White women, Hispanics, those over 65, union members, non-college graduates, and incomes less than $50,000. Polling shows Obama ahead in Wisconsin and if he clobbers her there like he did in the Potomac Primaries, she will also lose in Ohio. These two states have a lot in common concerning Democratic voters.

The Clinton campaign is a mess now too. She had to get a new campaign manager and needs to find a way to raise more money. More than all that she needs to get a plan in place and quickly or she is finished. You can tell a campaign has difficulty establishing a message when its slogans keep changing. In recent weeks, the Clinton campaign has featured one banner after another: "Big Challenges, Real Solutions," "Working for Change, Working for You," "Ready for Change, Ready to Lead" and "Solutions for America." Obama has stuck confidently with the slogan "Change You Can Believe In." Clinton must either get voters to stop believing in the change Obama promises, or make them an alternative Big Offer that they can believe in more.

McCain will need to get more Republicans interested in his campaign if he has any chance of competing in November. Many Republicans are only luke warm to the idea of a McCain presidency. His speeches are boring and uninspiring. As was described by a TV talking head, they sounded like he was talking to his flight crew. He also needs to get some younger people involved in his campaign. Every time you see him on TV he is surrounded by a people who all have AARP cards in their wallets. IMO, he has absolutely no chance of winning in November unless another 9/11 tragedy hits us between now and then.

Right now I feel that its Obama election to lose. The way he is broadening his appeal and reach with Independents and moderate Republicans he will be very tough to beat from now until November.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Time to Turn the Page...

I am not in agreement with a lot of Obama's, or Clinton's for that matter, policies. I am in agreement that Washington is out of control and needs an enema in the worst way. Lobbyists have far too much influence over our elected officials. Things have got to change. Politicians and voters have been talking about the need for change in our government since 1787 when we became a Republic. No one ever does anything about it, so four years later they talk about it again. I feel that if not now... when? I want a clean sweep in Washington.

If Hillary gets elected POTUS, I would rather go swimming in my septic tank then set foot inside the Beltway again. DC will stink far worse than it already does. It smells bad now after 20 years of Bush-Clinton-Bush. The smell will be terrible if we have 28 years of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. Then who?? Jeb Bush followed by Chelsea Clinton?? We are worse than a 3rd world country with this passing the crown to family members. In a country of close to 300 million people, these 2 families are the best we can do??

I am also tired of wedge issues being all the 2 parties are concerned with. They do nothing about the important things that this country needs to be concerned with and just keep jamming abortion, gay marriage, and class warfare down our throats. I posted about how Karl Rove has torn the Republican party apart and it can be seen right now in the primaries.

McCain is not the solution he is part of the problem. Anyone with his time in the Senate is not going to fix anything. At 72 he should be thinking about retiring, playing with his grandkids, having a cigar on the golf course and going to the Senior's Early Bird dinner at Denny's, not starting the most difficult job in the world. I don’t trust him to do what is right. He has shown contempt to the voters and tells them he knows best. Now I am supposed to take his word that he will run the country effectively. He is doing his best to tear the Republican party to pieces because his ego is as big as Hillary's. The ends justify the means for both of them.

I have always been a registered Independent and have voted for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians for Congress however, I have not voted for a Democrat for POTUS since 1976, and was that ever a mistake. I don’t want to see a Democrat in the White House in November, but I feel that it is inevitable. The deck is stacked against the Republicans and they have no chance of winning this time around. Face reality. There will be a Democratic POTUS getting sworn in next year.

So, with all this being said, if we are going to have a Democratic POTUS it has to be the best option available and that IMO is Obama. We all know he will not be able to do all the things he says he will in his campaign. What politician can? I also think it the start that people are looking for with a new face and not someone deeply entrenched in the "system". Obama will give us a new start in Washington and who can argue that isn’t needed. He is a very smart man that has not led some privileged life and I think that keeps him better grounded then some career Politian that long ago decided his shit doesn’t stink anymore.

If Hillary is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster with Republicans ferociously opposing her. So nothing gets done and we are torn even further apart then we are now. She will have a lot of "pay backs" to make so we will see all her husband's old political cronies back in DC again. Kinda reminds you of how Bush "hired" all his father's old buddies. In 2016, we will be in the same boat we are right now again. Maybe she will make things so bad that Republicans will come zooming back into power, as they did in 1980 and 1994, and 2000, but why go through 8 years of Hillary just to regain control of the Congress.

If McCain is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with the Republicans in Congress co-opted by "our" president, followed by 30 years of Democratic rule. The Republican party will cease to exist.

The scenario with Clinton or McCain is very very bleak for moderates, conservatives and libertarians. In other words... the 80% of people who fall somewhere in the middle. Since the table is now pretty much set with who we will have to live with for at least the next 4 years, I have decided to go with Obama. I feel he is the right guy for our country of choices we have left. I don’t feel real good tossing McCain under the bus but just because the Republicans in Congress feel that it is his "turn" doesn’t make it best for the country. In 1996, it was Bob Dole's "turn" and that was a disaster too. A clean start is what is needed and Obama is the only choice now, IMO. I will be voting for him next Tuesday in the Virginia primary and again in November if he is going against McCain. Call it damage control or the lesser of 3 evils if you want. I call it getting the old smelly hippies out and turning the page on the 60s.

Maybe a solid 3rd party may develop between now and then so I can feel good about voting, but if not this is my plan.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead...

Ding Dong the witch is dead!!

Super Tuesday has happened and we have now seen the end of the Clinton era. Hillary won some big states like New York, California and New Jersey but she did not win the majority of the states or delegates up for grabs on Tuesday. The states she did win are blue states and will go to the Democratic candidate regardless of who is on the ballot. Obama won 14 of the 22 states up for grabs. Obama won every caucus on Tuesday. He clobbered her in red states that the Democrats will need if they want to win in November.

Hillary Clinton survived a Super Tuesday scare. But there are several big reasons for her to be scared. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests. In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine.

Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she may be favored to win.

Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing. He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward. Now it is reported that Clinton had to loan her campaign $5 million and her staff is going unpaid for a month.

We have seen the beginning of the end of the Clinton era.

On the Republican side, McAmnesty seems to be the front runner but it wasn’t the slam dunk he expected. Huckabee seemed to come out of nowhere to win some southern states. But he has only one more card to play and that is Mississippi. After that he runs out of Evangelical strongholds. Until then he will continue to drain votes from Romney and most likely keep him from getting the nomination.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Happy Birthday Gipper...

Today would have been Ronald W. Reagan's 97th birthday. One of the greatest Presidents of all time. His face belongs on Mt. Rushmore. Where are you when we really need you??

Happy Birthday Gipper...