Tuesday, January 29, 2008

The South has risen... at least for Obama

The South Carolina results.

Obama – 55%
Clinton – 27%
Edwards – 18%

McCain – 33%
Huckabee – 30%
Thompson – 16%
Romney -15%

The big story out of South Carolina is once again just how wrong the polls were, especially with the Democrats. On Saturday morning the latest polls had Obama with no more than an 8 point lead. No one was even close to the 28 point victory he had over Clinton. There had been lots of talk about Bill Clinton “playing the race card” all week, and that probably seriously contributed to Hillary’s drubbing. Her campaign underestimated the bitterness that would be created by Bill Clinton's role as a "bad cop" against Obama in South Carolina. This not only solidified the African-American vote for Obama, but also appears to have pushed down Clinton's share of the white vote in the final days. It seems she will have to “reinvent” herself again.

I would love to have been able to be in the room at Clinton campaign headquarters. My feeling is that after Iowa Bill Clinton decided to jump in and “fix” things since her staff couldn’t get Hillary a win in Iowa. Now, after a big time defeat in South Carolina, the Clinton campaign has to be wondering what they can do next. Lots of Democrats in Congress told Bill to “chill out” because he was destroying the party. There is a big concern that if he keeps it up the actual nomination wont be worth much as was the case with Mondale, who only won 1 state, and Dukakis, who only won 1- states, after nasty campaign fights. However, IMO, as far as the Clintons are concerned the ends justify the means.

On the Republican side there is still no clear leader even with a McCain win. It was a cold and rainy day in South Carolina for the Republican primary and the worst of the weather was in the northern part of the state. This is the area where Huckabee had his strongest support. My guess is that the weather held voter turn out down it this area and that may have helped McCain get the win. Huckabee also stuck his foot in his mouth when he even mentioned the Confederate flag. His staffers should have told him to stay a million miles away from that issue. Not even is evangelical base could help him after that. Romney was treated like the slick talking northeastern politician he is and was never a factor, and won’t be in most of the southern states. A week earlier in Nevada Mormons made up a quarter of Republican caucus participants, and 95 percent of them voted for Romney. Funny how that never gets mentioned but when 78% of black voters supported Obama it got lots of press.

Rudy Giuliani gambled and seems to have lost. I bet all the people who contributed to his campaign are pissed off at the way he decided to wait until Florida. He is polling no higher than 16% since the Iowa caucuses. Giuliani was running a hard-right campaign, and that didn't play in New Hampshire, a state with a moderate GOP electorate. He wasted most of the fall dueling with Romney over who hates immigrants more. Both candidates are full of it on the issue - neither had shown any interest in the border until they were told the GOP base was in revolt over it - and it hasn't ended up determining the GOP primaries anyway. Who ultimately won New Hampshire and South Carolina? The "amnesty" candidate, McCain. It all makes me wonder if anyone will get the Republican nomination and whoever does has any hope in November.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Michigan is in the books...

Well, Michigan is in the books now and nothing in either party is settled. The Republicans have 3 different winners now and no clear front runner. I was a bit surprised that McCain didnt do better given that Independent and Democrats could vote in the Republican primary, which I think is a total joke. McCain's only hope is to get Independent voters because in the states that dont allow them he will be clobbered by the Republican base. He has only been delaying the inevitable.

I think Romney won because he stressed his business experience in a state that has been hurt bad economically. Romney's message in the last few days was tailored to the economic concerns of Michigan. He also made some crazy promises to return auto jobs back to Michigan too. Those jobs are gone forever.

Yet again, Hillary is the big loser. However her camp is touting it as another big win. She got 55% of the vote... as the only major candidate on the ballot. Uncommitted got 40%. Her camp decided that since Uncommitted didnt get 60-70% of the vote it was a win for her. I am surprised that 40% of the Democratic voters came out in a snow storm to vote Uncommitted. There was no incentive for them to do that. The big story is Hillary Clinton losing the African American vote to Uncommitted. The exit poll pegged African Americans going against Clinton, 68% to 30%. African Americans are breaking Obama's way. The Clinton campaign should be worried about this.

The other candidates chose to obey what the DNC had said about not campaigning or running in Michigan since they jumped themselves ahead in the primaries. There delegates will not count at the convention as a result, so there was no reason to be on the ballot. The buzz on the MSM is that the Clintons are trying to get the DNC to reverse their decision about the Michigan delgates. Go figure huh?

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Stunner in N.H... Huh?? I dont think so...

Top 3 finishers:

Clinton - 39%
Obama - 37%
Edwards - 17%

McCain - 37 %
Romney - 32%
Huckabee - 11%

Well... The New Hampshire primaries are in the books now and all the talking heads are saying that Clinton made a huge comeback. I dont buy it for a second.

MSNBC wrote:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won New Hampshire's Democratic
primary Tuesday night, pulling out a stunning victory over Sen. Barack Obama in
a contest that she had been forecast to lose.
Did anyone actually believe the "latest polls" that showed Obama up by 20%? Huh?? 10 days before the N.H. primary all the polls had Clinton up by as much as 20% with most showing an 13-15% lead there.

Were we supposed to think that after Iowa there would be a 30-40% swing? Only an idiot would have believed that. Why didnt any of the talking heads question the reliability of the recent polls. They were spot on for the Republican race but had a huge swing for the Democrats and everyone took the bait - hook, line, and sinker.

I dont believe in conspiracies, but I smell the Clinton machine in action. They had to somehow spin N.H. as a "win" for Hillary at all costs or the money would dry up faster than a cigar out of the humidor. If Hillary had lost a 20 point lead and only won by the 2-3% that she did, it would have been touted as a big win for Obama by narrowing huge gap. On the flip side, if "miraculously" Obama had gotten a 20% lead and only beat Clinton by 3-5% it would still be seen as a victory for Hillary.

As it turns out she did win by 2-3% so all the talking heads could declare it an amazing comeback and stunning win. IMO, it showed a loss of 15% in one week.

On the Republican side, the talking heads are calling McCain the Comeback Kid, which again I dont understand. He has won his only primary and will be long gone after Super Tuesday. He is on the wrong side of too many issues for most Republicans. He is too old to be electable and will look about 100 by November if he were the nominee. He had to let staff go last fall because his campaign is broke. Unless he wins the PowerBall he wont have the funds to keep going.

Oh well... next week we have Michigan and I will have a few comments I bet...